Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rebound eyes $1,845 resistance on softer USD, focus on Fed’s Powell
FXStreet · 21 Jun 2022 338 Views
  • Gold price picks up bids to refresh intraday high, reverses week-start declines.
  • US dollar remains pressured as traders brace for Powell’s Testimony amid firmer stock futures.
  • Yields, recession fears fail to underpin the greenback amid lack of major data/events.
  • Second-tier US statistics, risk catalysts may entertain traders.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) remains firmer around $1,843 as bulls cheer the US dollar’s sustained weakness during the lackluster Asian session on Tuesday. Also underpinning the yellow metal’s upside are the upbeat prints of the US stock futures and the market’s preparations for Wednesday’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Testimony.

US Dollar Index (DXY) extends the week-start losses to 104.30, down 0.20% intraday by the press time. That said, the greenback gauge began the week on a negative note as the Juneteenth holiday allowed bulls to take a breather.

Also underpinning the US dollar weakness, as well as fueling the gold prices, are the positive performances by the stocks/bunds in Europe and the UK amid an off in the US and a rethink over the latest pessimism surrounding economic slowdown. However, chatters over the central bankers’ aggression in taming inflation challenge the market’s optimism, as well as the gold buyers.

Furthermore, headlines suggesting an improvement in China’s covid conditions and the US readiness to ease the Trump-era tariffs on the dragon nation could be cited as the positive catalyst for the XAU/USD prices.

Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures rise over 1.0%, up for the second consecutive day, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields print a three-day uptrend around 3.284% by the press time.

That said, gold traders may now look for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the US Existing Home Sales for the said month to entertain intraday traders. However, major attention will be given to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s Testimony on the bi-annual Monetary Policy Report, on Wednesday and Thursday.

Technical analysis

Gold Price extends the latest recovery towards the $1,845 resistance confluence comprising the 100 and 200 SMAs, as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June upside. Also highlighting the importance of the stated hurdle is the 200-DMA on the daily chart.

It’s worth noting that the recent firmer RSI may help the XAU/USD buyers to overcome the key resistance of near $1,845.

Following that, Thursday’s high of $1,857 and the monthly peak near $1,880 will gain the market’s attention.

Alternatively, the weekly support line and the 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) limit the short-term downside of the Gold Price to around $1,833.00.

In a case where gold sellers keep reins past $1,833, the 61.8% Fibo level and the monthly low, respectively around $1,822 and $1,805, could gain the market’s attention.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further upside expected

Additional important levels

Today last price 1841.15
Today Daily Change 5.08
Today Daily Change % 0.28%
Today daily open 1836.07
Daily SMA20 1847.23
Daily SMA50 1872.33
Daily SMA100 1890.88
Daily SMA200 1843.22
Previous Daily High 1846.18
Previous Daily Low 1834.9
Previous Weekly High 1879.26
Previous Weekly Low 1805.11
Previous Monthly High 1909.83
Previous Monthly Low 1786.94
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1839.21
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1841.87
Daily Pivot Point S1 1831.92
Daily Pivot Point S2 1827.77
Daily Pivot Point S3 1820.64
Daily Pivot Point R1 1843.2
Daily Pivot Point R2 1850.33
Daily Pivot Point R3 1854.48